Recent figures released by the State Government – as reported by Miki Perkins in The Age state that whilst greenhouse emissions fell between the 2017 and 2018 financial years with the largest decline in the electricity sector (17%), “the transport sector remains the second largest and fastest growing source in the state increasing by about 3.5% compared to the previous year.
This is hardly surprising because this State government has done little to promote more efficient travel or the need to travel less and less often. In fact most of the transport budget continues to be spent on roads in a way that promotes motor vehicle transport ie for private, commercial and freight at the expense of more efficient modes. The WestGate Tunnel and North East Link are typical examples. Whilst significant expenditure is committed for the Metro Rail Tunnel and the airport rail link these will have little impact on emission reductions overall – most of the transport emissions will continue to be generated by motor vehicles on our roads. Whilst covid will have forced significant emission reductions for much of this year the impact will be short lived once travel restrictions are lifted and people and businesses return to more normal life.
The imperative to reduce greenhouse emissions (amongst other things) was highlighted in Transport for Melbourne’s annual forum – The Future We Must Plan For on 4th December in which Prof David Karoly noted that targets to achieve net zero emissions by 2050 were obsolete.
Emission reduction targets have been constantly shortening. This is because the situation is deteriorating rapidly, at a faster rate than modelling had predicted and also because the models themselves are improving and can predict global change with greater accuracy. In 2019 Prof Johan Rockstrom (Potsdam Germany) presented tougher targets of 50%by the end of 2030, 50% by 2040 and zero by 2050 ie in which the heavy lifting had to be done this decade. These were revised – first to 6% pa then 8% pa by Tim Flannery. The latest, presented by David Karoly at our forum require a 125% reduction by 2030. This means it is necessary to achieve not only a 100% reduction but to suck more out of the system as a whole by 2030. These targets will almost certainly be revised further as climate modelling becomes more accurate.
But as Will Steffen pointed out in his presentation, changes brought about by degradation and transformation of the biosphere are becoming more critical in determining climate outcomes. This requires further targets of a different kind which are not on any government agenda at this stage.
It was noted that we are approaching a number of tipping points where sudden changes in the earth system that will tip it into a hothouse trajectory which will lead to collapse and ultimately extinction of most of the life on this planet including homosapians. Once these tipping points occur there will be a cascading effect which will trigger other changes which will be mutually reinforcing. Once this happens it will be impossible to reverse. It will be like falling over a cliff that will put us on an irreversible hot house earth trajectory.
These trajectories are presented below.
We are fast approaching many of these tipping points. Scientists tell us what we do in this decade will determine our future. The implications for transport are profound. It is imperative that growth in transport emissions be reversed immediately and the sector must be carbon neutral before 2030, but few people have any idea what this means let alone how to achieve it. The only travel mode that achieves it at this time is active transport – walking and cycling. Public transport needs to lift its game. Whilst it may be more efficient than private road transport it is only so if it is well patronised and even then is a long way short of carbon neutral and we have no idea yet how this will be achieved in this sector.
The transport challenge is enormous and will not be achieved using traditional transport approaches. It will require a complete change in the transport system itself. What may have been considered models of excellence in the past will no longer be the case. But transport strategies will need to adapt to reflect broader social and economic changes which are reflected in the economy as a whole, and on this matter we are in uncharted waters.
Politicians and others might argue that this is mission impossible but they need to be reminded of the consequences of inaction and failure to achieve these targets. Specifying what needs to be done, however daunting that may be, is the easy bit. How to achieve it is the real challenge. This was discussed in our forum and whilst many ideas were discussed it only scratched the surface and must be the subject of serious and urgent discussion.
The forum video can be viewed on TfM’s YouTube channel using the following links: https://youtu.be/8guHY7jtWrU or https://youtu.be/HwklJF-dmlU
Videos of earlier presentations to the Sustainable Cities forum in 2009 by Prof Will Steffen and Dr Graham Turner can also be viewed on this chanel. These address fundamental issues which have been updated at the latest forum and remain relevant as benchmarks. Powerpoint presentations and papers can also be viewed on the Transport for Melbourne web site under forums.