The enormity of the task only dawns when we start developing a plan. It is only then that governments and societies start to understand the scale and complexity of our challenge, realise that technology is not the answer and that we have to change our behaviour, fundamental values and expectations if we are to achieve our goals.
The following are conclusions from our forum round table held on December 6th
- Rapid reductions in transport emissions can be achieved using a combination of technological refinements and behavioural change. Most of the measures required to achieve these are not new, are not difficult to implement and have been discussed at length for decades. The problem has been the mindset and lack of commitment to do them by state and federal governments. Whilst reductions cannot be assessed in quantitative terms precisely at this time it should be possible to achieve reductions of at least 40% by 2030
- Achieving zero transport emissions by 2035 for Melbourne’s transport is not possible based on business as usual. Achieving this may ultimately be impossible but reductions that could result in outcomes close to zero are feasible within this timescale
- Transport emission reductions cannot be pursued in isolation: they impact and are impacted by changes in the broader economy, so an emission reduction strategy must be carried out as an integral part of a broader plan with a similar mindset
- Emission reductions must be an integral part of a zero-emission world in which restoration of the biosphere and limits to growth will become increasingly critical and determine the shape, size and level of social and economic activity that can be supported by the city and ultimately the magnitude and type of transport activity required to service it
- It is anticipated population and economic growth trends will be determined by environmental factors that will limit growth, reverse current trends and proceed at an accelerating rate of decline in the future
- Ultimately government has a choice: commit to meeting targets scientists have given or pursue a compromised strategy based on business as usual. If governments at all levels pursue the latter, and it is adopted globally, they must accept that such a path will almost certainly put humanity on a hot house earth trajectory that will lead to mass extinction. This path will become increasingly unpleasant for all societies and later adaption strategies will become difficult and ultimately futile. The choice is a moral one and must be stated publicly at the outset
- The challenge for government is to find ways of meeting these targets in a way that engages the community and maintains support for change in the coming crisis. Governments at every level must assume the role of change agent, provide the mechanisms for change, the means to manage the transition to a new zero emission world and provide the leadership to make it happen.
If governments are genuine about their commitment to meet environmental targets there must be a fundamental change in mindset which abandons business as usual and the thinking and values that underpins it. It is business as usual that has got us into this mess in the first place and it will not be the solution to our problem. The mindset required must accept the climate catastrophe is real and what is driving it. The starting point is to declare a state of emergency and do whatever it takes to avert catastrophic climate change. Once this is declared we can start being serious about actions required to avert it, adapt and survive.