The federal government has committed itself to a 43% reduction in greenhouse emissions by 2030 and 100% by 2050 in an attempt to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees – well short of what scientists have demanded (80% by 2030 and 100% by 2035 according to the Australian Climate Council). But even a modest target of 43% requires a plan to implement it and manage the transition.
Former Prime Minister Morrison stated that reducing greenhouse emissions would be no more difficult than responding to another Covid. Perhaps he had in mind a world where we all had solar cells on our roofs, drove electric cars, and life would proceed as normal – the good life with business as usual. Perhaps the new federal government has a similar view.
If anyone doubted the need for a plan then look no further than the energy crisis that is gripping the European Community, UK and even the US today. The EU decarbonisation program is more advanced than Australia and has higher targets so this crisis should have been an opportunity to accelerate decarbonisation. Instead these countries have attempted, unsuccessfully, to prop up their economies by importing oil and gas from other sources. Some people have even resorted to burning firewood and waste to keep warm. The impact on these economies has been disastrous and will almost certainly drive them into recession. It has exposed the extent to which all economies are dependent on fossil fuels and the absence of a transition plan and lack of understanding of what is required to make it work.
Reducing greenhouse emissions is not easy and costs money. Costs to business are invariably passed on to the community. Decarbonisation also requires major changes in behaviour which invariably costs money too. Government can assist businesses and the community to make the transition but this also costs money and will become increasingly difficult when the economy enters a difficult period with rising interest rates, other inflationary and cost of living pressures, stagnating wages and high debt levels.
Unfortunately the cost of adaption will not be shared equally and will invariably fall most heavily on those least able to adapt – the most socially and economically disadvantaged. This applies to transport, particularly for people who are car dependent. There are however opportunities for people to achieve substantial cost savings by making greater use of public transport or walking or cycling for more trips, but it is up to State and local governments to create the conditions which make these options more acceptable. There are many ways in which this can be done. Many of these have been outlined in our forums, papers, blogs and formal submissions to government. But we are not alone on this matter. The need to respond has been recognised by transport planners for decades but is becoming increasingly urgent.