One of the messages we have been repeating for some time is that humankind is living beyond the means of planet Earth to support us, that there is an imperative to reduce consumption of everything if we are to have a future, and that includes energy itself. This was the subject of a presentation made by Prof Damon Honnery at the Sustainable Cities Sustainable Transport forum in 2009. It is as relevant today as it was twelve years ago, but it is the scale of the reduction required that is worth repeating. His conclusions were as follows:
Energy demand will likely double by 2050, driven largely by population growth and increasing standards of living.
Although energy will become more expensive fossil fuels could likely provide for this growth.
But the world will have to reduce its per capita carbon emissions by 3 to 10x (Australia maybe 12 to 40x) to avoid dramatic climate change.
Renewable energy would have to increase by a factor of 20x currently used, with non-hydro sources by >100x.
Renewables available is limited to around 50-60% current energy use. It cannot provide for growth expected, nor account for emission reductions needed.
The world will have to get use to using less energy, Australians will have to get use to using even less.
Some of the figures quoted above will be greater now. As Honnery said in his presentation, even the transition to renewables requires energy, with a final reminder that the concept of using carbon capture to store emissions (a fundamental assumption in the federal government’s “strategy”) is laughable. Little has changed since, except the situation has become far worse and governments at all levels continue to ignore the fundamental realities and pretend our environmental challenges can be solved using technology alone in a business as usual environment.
What is required now is an update of Honnery’s projections by independent scientists in an environment in which they can provide their findings and advice, which can be peer reviewed without fear or favour. The imperative then is for governments to accept these findings and respond openly and honestly with appropriate policies and programs.