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Our transport future – Time to take stock

Introduction  

Very little planning has been carried out in anticipation of the profound changes we should expect in the future. What little has been done has been carried out piecemeal, without any appreciation of the changes that should be expected in the social, political and economic system as a whole. It is time to take stock of the current situation, develop some scenarios for the future we need to plan for, develop goals and a framework and priorities for plans and programs to achieve them. But any programs must be system based and outcome focused with measurable goals consistent with international targets and timelines based on reputable scientific evidence.     

Current Thinking   

Transport planning and thinking, despite the overwhelming evidence of global change, dominated by climate and environmental change more generally, continues to be based in large measure on the assumption that life will continue in most respects as business as usual. In other words, current thinking assumes global environmental change is just another background issue that can be considered separately with grudging acceptance that our future will need to focus on greener energy such as electric cars and other technological advances, and there is plenty of time to transition which can be achieved by incremental change.  

This mindset is clearly articulated by the State government and its big build program but it seems to be a prevailing view amongst many transport planners. It is also driven by an expectation of continuing population and economic growth.  This mindset must change. The reality is none of the above are valid and reflects a lack of understanding of the gravity of the environmental situation and the profound implications for every aspect of human activity, including transport.  

Transport – a Derived Demand  

Transport is a function of the social, political and economic environment which is constantly changing. Covid has demonstrated how easily it can be disrupted. Many businesses will fail to adapt and disappear under pressure of climate and global change. This must be anticipated in our transport planning. For example there has to be a question mark over the future of the airline industry and its ability to operate with zero carbon emissions. This will have a cascading impact on the local economy, local transport demand and supporting infrastructure in the future. There will be other industries that find a place in a new and hopefully more sustainable world but it is not clear what these might be or transport services that would be required to support them.  

Transport projections based on continuing population and economic growth must also be challenged despite convictions held by most politicians, planners and economists to the contrary. Prediction of longer term transport needs is very difficult if not impossible in a world of increasingly rapid change but there are limits to growth and it is most likely these have already been exceeded. Whilst some growth will occur in the short term it will almost certainly be short lived and inevitably reversed before long as the planet’s biosphere becomes increasingly degraded and supports fewer people. This scenario can be expected to apply increasingly to all societies throughout the world. This will have profound implications for all societies throughout the world – social, political and economic and must be reflected in transport plans for the future.  

A Transport Philosophy For The Future  

Transport must be designed as a “system” that is flexible and can adapt rapidly to the changing environment it supports in a way that meets environmental goals. This will require a mission statement with measurable targets that can be monitored and used to apply pressure for change and hold governments and their agencies to account. But it cannot be developed in isolation. It must be developed as a “service industry” that is an integral part of the broader social, political system of which it is part.   

The immediate implications for transport planners should be for people to travel less, less often and more efficiently, to use and manage our existing stock of infrastructure as effectively and efficiently as possible before building more. Government must develop policies and a framework to make this happen. Whilst technology may provide some assistance in achieving these outcomes its prime function must be to promote behavioural change. Reliance on technology alone will not solve our transport problems, or environmental problems either. Many of the technologies envisaged will take time – time we do not have, and need to be tested to ensure they work. More likely, as has happened so often in the past they simply make the situation worse contrary to expectations by politicians, economists and planners today. This has been confirmed many times in the past and has been one of the dominant factors that has led to the collapse of many civilisations, and has been the main reason for our global environmental crisis today. But in the current environment the rate of technological change may not be fast enough either – a critical consideration at a time when the need for change has become urgent.  

Prof Johan Rockstrom has described our situation as so serious it will require an effort equivalent to the Apollo program to achieve success. Scientists have given us this decade to get our act together, to transition the whole world to a new logic. This is a challenge humanity cannot afford to fail – to do so would put us on a hothouse trajectory that would result in a mass extinction event that would lead to our ultimate demise as a species.

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The Need to Understand Your Own Business

Transport is a “service” industry. This was the subject of an earlier blog, and it is important this be well understood. Otherwise a lot of money can be wasted on ill conceived and poorly designed transport projects that do not meet travellers needs let alone standards of world best practice. The average person would assume that people who are planning and designing our shiny new transport infrastructure understand this and get it “right” but here in Victoria they would be mistaken.  

This issue has been raised by Peter Parker and reported on his blog www.melbourneontransit.blogspot.com but is of such fundamental importance that I have quoted it here. Illustrations and photographs are included in his blog.

The new Coburg Station 

Posted: 11 Jan 2021 11:25 AM PST 

Although the station is open for passenger service, the most direct access to the north is not yet, with long walks to buses. There is not even any wayfinding signage to buses, such as installed on a mass scale during the Metlink signage era (about 15 years ago).

The new Coburg station looks shiny and nice but of long term significance is its poor design as a transport hub. As pointed out by the Upfield Corridor Coalition, it should have been built to straddle busy Bell St, which sees 13 buses per hour (offpeak). This would have enlarged the station’s walking catchment and improved connectivity with buses by allowing people to catch buses either east or west without negotiating one of the northern suburbs’ busiest roads. The diagrams below compare best and more typical design practices for stations involving elevated rail.

An emerging pattern with new stations that emerge from grade separations is that their designers do not always see the public transport system as a whole, including the need for interchange between modes (that should ideally be just a few steps). Maximising walking catchments measured in accessible population / within 10 minutes walk (including that required to cross major roads that poor designs impose on station users) should also be another key criteria when evaluating designs”.  

These are fundamental issues that every transport planner and designer should understand and get right. The relevant knowledge and expertise should reside within the Department as a knowledgeable client – one that knows its own business. Unfortunately this is not an isolated failing. Nor is it confined to the transport portfolio. It is a systemic problem that pervades government at every level and we pay a huge price, but it needs to be addressed if we are to respond effectively to really important issues such as the global climate emergency.

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Transport needs to lift its game

Recent figures released by the State Government – as reported by Miki Perkins in The Age state that whilst greenhouse emissions fell between the 2017 and 2018 financial years with the largest decline in the electricity sector (17%), “the transport sector remains the second largest and fastest growing source in the state increasing by about 3.5% compared to the previous year.  

This is hardly surprising because this State government has done little to promote more efficient travel or the need to travel less and less often. In fact most of the transport budget continues to be spent on roads in a way that promotes motor vehicle transport ie for private, commercial and freight at the expense of more efficient modes.  The WestGate Tunnel and North East Link are typical examples. Whilst significant expenditure is committed for the Metro Rail Tunnel and the airport rail link these will have little impact on emission reductions overall – most of the transport emissions will continue to be generated by motor vehicles on our roads. Whilst covid will have forced significant emission reductions for much of this year the impact will be short lived once travel restrictions are lifted and people and businesses return to more normal life. 

The imperative to reduce greenhouse emissions (amongst other things) was highlighted in Transport for Melbourne’s annual forum – The Future We Must Plan For on 4th December in which Prof David Karoly noted that targets to achieve net zero emissions by 2050 were obsolete.  

Emission reduction targets have been constantly shortening. This is because the situation is deteriorating rapidly, at a faster rate than modelling had predicted and also because the models themselves are improving and can predict global change with greater accuracy.  In 2019 Prof Johan Rockstrom (Potsdam Germany) presented tougher targets of 50%by the end of 2030, 50% by 2040 and zero by 2050 ie in which the heavy lifting had to be done this decade. These were revised – first to 6% pa then 8% pa by Tim Flannery. The latest, presented by David Karoly at our forum require a 125% reduction by 2030. This means it is necessary to achieve not only a 100% reduction but to suck more out of the system as a whole by 2030. These targets will almost certainly be revised further as climate modelling becomes more accurate.  

But as Will Steffen pointed out in his presentation, changes brought about by degradation and transformation of the biosphere are becoming more critical in determining climate outcomes. This requires further targets of a different kind which are not on any government agenda at this stage.  

It was noted that we are approaching a number of tipping points where sudden changes in the earth system that will tip it into a hothouse trajectory which will lead to collapse and ultimately extinction of most of the life on this planet including homosapians. Once these tipping points occur there will be a cascading effect which will trigger other changes which will be mutually reinforcing. Once this happens it will be impossible to reverse. It will be like falling over a cliff that will put us on an irreversible hot house earth trajectory.    

 These trajectories are presented below.

Source: Will Steffan 4 December 2020
Source: Will Steffan 4 December 2020

We are fast approaching many of these tipping points. Scientists tell us what we do in this decade will determine our future.  The implications for transport are profound.  It is imperative that growth in transport emissions be reversed immediately and the sector must be carbon neutral before 2030, but few people have any idea what this means let alone how to achieve it.  The only travel mode that achieves it at this time is active transport – walking and cycling. Public transport needs to lift its game. Whilst it may be more efficient than private road transport it is only so if it is well patronised and even then is a long way short of carbon neutral and we have no idea yet how this will be achieved in this sector.  

The transport challenge is enormous and will not be achieved using traditional transport approaches. It will require a complete change in the transport system itself. What may have been considered models of excellence in the past will no longer be the case. But transport strategies will need to adapt to reflect broader social and economic changes which are reflected in the economy as a whole, and on this matter we are in uncharted waters.  

Politicians and others might argue that this is mission impossible but they need to be reminded of the consequences of inaction and failure to achieve these targets. Specifying what needs to be done, however daunting that may be, is the easy bit. How to achieve it is the real challenge. This was discussed in our forum and whilst many ideas were discussed it only scratched the surface and must be the subject of serious and urgent discussion.        

The forum video can be viewed on TfM’s YouTube channel using the following links: https://youtu.be/8guHY7jtWrU  or https://youtu.be/HwklJF-dmlU 

Videos of earlier presentations to the Sustainable Cities forum in 2009 by Prof Will Steffen and Dr Graham Turner can also be viewed on this chanel. These address fundamental issues which have been updated at the latest forum and remain relevant as benchmarks. Powerpoint presentations and papers can also be viewed on the Transport for Melbourne web site under forums.

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Curitiba – Once a model of sustainability in the broadest sense

The city of Curitiba, in southern Brazil, is famous among urban planners for its innovation and rational development, with a reputation for being highly livable and very sustainable. It was one of the first cities to market itself as “green” in a 1980s advertising campaign. In 2010 it won the Globe Sustainable City Award and its transportation system could in many ways justify a claim as a model of excellence. Subsequent events over recent years highlight how easily this can be lost.    

Integrated Transport System  

The development of Curitiba’s world-renowned transportation system began in the late 1960s, early 1970s. Unlike other Latin American cities, Curitiba’s planners decided to address the process of transportation as an integrative approach that can assist in the development of the city. In Curitiba’s case, its planners recognized that transportation systems can serve as the backbone for the development and growth of the city in the future. 

Its system uses only buses and was initiated by a visionary mayor in response to lobbying from a group of young architects who were not impressed by the urban fashion of borrowing money for big highways, massive buildings, shopping malls and other showy projects.  

Jaime Lerner was one of these architects. In 1971 he was appointed mayor by the military government of Brazil.  At the time Lerner was confronted with severe financial constraints so his approach had to be small scale, very cheap and participatory.  

Concentric circles of local bus lines connect to five lines that radiate from the centre of the city in a spider web pattern. On the radial lines, triple-compartment buses in their own traffic lanes carry three hundred passengers each. They could go as fast as subway (metro) cars, but at one eighth of the construction cost.  

The buses stop at Plexiglas tube stations are designed by Lerner. Passengers pay their fares, enter through the tube and exit from the other end. This system eliminates paying on board and allows faster loading and unloading, less idling and air pollution and a shelter place for waiting, though the system was so efficient that there was not much waiting.  

After implementation average bus speeds increased from 5/6 kph to 18/20 – more than three times as fast. Additionally, to avoid congestion in central areas, various streets in the city centre were pedestrianised. This measure initially received negative feedback from local shop-owners, but is now internationally admired. Bike lanes also run throughout the entire city.  

Curitiba’s early success provide valuable lessons, but so do its recent failings.   

Many Brazilians were attracted to Curitiba’s reputation as a functional, humane city. Its population has grown from 350,000 in the 1960s, when aggressive planning began, to 1.7 million today, with more than 3 million in the greater metropolitan area. Shades of killing the goose that laid golden eggs. The New York Times reported last year that Curitiba recycling rates were down and, as the city sprawls, its famous bus system has had trouble keeping pace. If you ask someone how to go by bus, the answer is very often: “Take a taxicab.” 

Worse, the development of Curitiba has led to dramatic deforestation: ninety-nine percent in the state of Parana, of which Curitiba is the largest city.  This and other challenges demand continual vigilance by a city known for its innovation — and also a shift from past authoritarian planning styles to a more democratic approach that involves civil society and mobilizes private property interests. So, despite the success of aggressive urban planning measures undertaken forty years ago, Curitiba must continue to update its initiatives and adapt to the times.

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Why is “Advocacy” so Important

Some might think our governments are elected to govern for all of us in the community interest and there is no need for community advocacy. The reality is governments tend not to lead but lag in response to community concerns etc and rely heavily on community feedback and respond to pressure from a wide range of interest groups. These interests range from genuine public interest – often for the “many” to naked rent seeking self interest of a few. It is an environment in which there is strong competition for ideas and too often it is the few who are winning.

This concern applies in all areas of government today and at all levels. It certainly applies in transport. Transport for Melbourne believes the starting point for effective advocacy is a thorough understanding of the issues – how the transport operates – as a system, reasonable expectations of it based on accepted standards of best practice, where it is failing, reasons for suboptimal performance, actions that can be taken to address this and actions to overcome forces blocking change.

Transport for Melbourne tends to focus on broader principles and strategic opportunities for change. If change is to occur it has to take place at this level and become embodied in government policy and strategic plans supported by appropriate funding. But this requires a change in government mindset. First priority must be to change this mindset. But this requires community pressure for change which in turn requires a change in the community mindset.

Successful advocacy therefore requires action at both levels and it needs people to champion its cause. To be effective It also needs to be conducted in a way that is understood by people from a wide range of backgrounds, recognizing there is no single simple message that makes sense for everyone. It also requires attention to detail on specific projects and a capacity to raise issues, communicate them in the public interest and provide a unified response by advocacy groups.

This is a role that has been taken up by Transport for Everyone (T4e). TfM was instrumental in T4e’s establishment in 2017. It is now an incorporated body with its own Charter and representatives from a number of advocacy groups including TfM. The list is growing with increased standing at a political level. Details of T4e are included on this web site under publications, and includes a link to its own blog. This will provide readers with a broader coverage of transport issues, typically at a more detailed level.

What are the prospects for success? History suggests a high level of success on important issues. Women’s rights, Same sex marriage, abortion, tobacco, early development child development and many more indicate there is every prospect for change if the community feels strongly enough and committed enough to force change it can happen. Our view is transport has such profound social, economic and environmental implications it is important to get it right. If this was sufficiently well understood communities throughout Australia will stand up and demand change.

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Zurich – a model of transport excellence

A model that provides valuable lessons that could be adapted and applied in Melbourne – if we had the mindset to do so.

Zurich is Switzerland’s largest city. The municipality has approximately 409,000 inhabitants, the urban agglomeration 1.315 million and the Zürich metropolitan area 1.83 million. Zurich is consistently ranked as one of the most liveable and sustainable cities in the world. Ranking criteria include life expectancy, safety, education, hygiene, health care, culture, energy consumption, greenhouse emissions, green space, recreation, political-economic stability, public transport and access to goods and services. The city is also recognised for a number of sustainable achievements in investment efficient and renewable energies, a sustainable public transport system and a willingness to increase public awareness of environmental issues.

Its public transport has been accepted as a model of excellence for many years. The population use public transport more than twice as much as the populations of most other cities – only Hong Kong has higher usage rates. The Zurich Transport Authority provides a public transport system that services the entire Canton not just within the city of Zurich itself but to outlying townships/villages within the Canton covering an area of 1840 sq km.

Zurich’ public transport system is serviced by train, trams, buses and ferries. It is structured around a set of radial rail and tram lines intersected by many bus routes which are generally circumferential providing a web for multidirectional transfers.

The network is clearly defined and designed for a wide range of travel needs – not just to and from work or school, it enables people to travel anywhere almost any time within the Canton including outlying villages. But whilst the design of the network is important it is the way it is operated that makes Zurich so outstanding.

A number of principles have been adopted that ensures its success.

It has a simple and stable interconnected network with a structure and timetable that is easy to learn and understand, that is quick and convenient to use, based on repeatable easily remembered service frequencies of 7.5’,15’ and 30’. This largely eliminates the need for timetables on most lines – although these are provided nonetheless.
High frequency services are provided throughout the day and evening which are quick and reliable.
These are important factors but the key principle is acceptance that many, indeed probably the majority of travelers will need to transfer between services to access their selected destination, so easy transfers and coordination of timetables are essential.

Two methods are used for coordinating transfers
high frequency connections
pulse or timed clock face times for lower frequency services – a Swiss innovation that probably provided a break-through in public transport thinking.

High and reliable travel speeds for all modes of travel are essential to compete with the car but they are critical to guarantee connections and provide a timetable for the network as a whole.

This is achieved by

  1. simplifying routes, making them as straight and direct as possible
  2. making transfers as easy as possible at the connection points and
  3. providing priority on roads to trams and buses, and it is this factor that really underpins its success.

Ernst Joos, former Deputy Director Zurich Transport Authority provides three messages concerning Zurich’s transport policy.

First message

If you ask the inhabitants of a town which transport policy should be followed, the citizens will not choose the car. They are much more intelligent than politicians and other opinion leaders would believe and have higher values than merely standing still in a traffic jam.

Second message

The future of urban transport policy lies not in expansion but in the intelligent use of the existing traffic areas. The objective of ensuring mobility for people when travelling in work and shopping and during leisure time requires imaginative urban traffic management based on modern information technology.

Third message

With regard to urban transport policy, economy and ecology are by no means contradictory. Zurich is living proof of the fact that a transport policy which promotes public transport at the expense of private motor transport results in considerable economic development of the city.

On the Zurich Model Joos writes

“Readers will no doubt expect a representative from well-to-do Switzerland to present a solid and correspondingly expensive answer to city traffic problems. However I am going to disappoint you. Zurich’s transport policy is worthy of attention because:

  • It is not spectacular but efficient
  • It costs little and protects the environment
  • It imposes self-restraint on politicians but the population accepts and participates in it.”
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Transport models of excellence

Transport models of excellence

What are they and why don’t we learn from them?

This is a question I asked frequently when I worked for the Public Transport Corporation many years ago. There are number of cities we could learn from. Many of these have been confronted with similar problems to Melbourne and achieved far better transport outcomes in the process. Some are now accepted as models of best practice.

These cities vary in population, size/area, and structure, support people with different cultures and can be seen in most continents of the world. Principles and practices used by these cities are well understood. Many attempts have been made to introduce transport experts from them to policy makers in Melbourne but have consistently failed – mainly for political reasons. Whilst these cities now have to cope with disruption and longer- term impacts of covid and will also have to adapt in restructured carbon neutral economy they are better placed than most to do so and will continue to provide valuable lessons that can be applied in Melbourne. I will discuss some of these cities over the coming weeks.

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A question of governance

The quality of Governance ultimately defines who we are and it is failing us

This was the subject Transport for Melbourne addressed in our annual forum in 2017, the proceedings of which can be viewed on our website under forums. It was also the subject of an earlier blog of mine. Our president Nick Low has discussed this in more detail in his short paper below. Nick writes “My purpose in this paper is to shift the debate from the superficial to the underlying nature of governance today. Dispute how we will, but for God’s sake let’s have the debate. ” This is an important paper and deserves to be read by a wide audience.

A question of governance

To bring about change in a democracy such as Australia’s we like to believe that progress is achievable through political processes. We believe that the acts of joining community groups, joining political parties – or forming them – protesting in the media, in the streets, and of course voting are sufficient to bring about beneficial social change.

We may also believe that, even though the public service is depleted, as I argued in my speech at the launch for TfM, it has the power to bring about beneficial change, if only it would remember how to plan.

The daily political turmoil that the press and social media report at high volume and great length is, I argue, a distraction from the underlying problem of democratic governance which is powerful because invisible, like the corona virus. It also inhabits bodies and minds.

From my most recent research reported in my book Being a Planner in Society, the on-line Appendix to the book, and my blogs on Edward Elgar’s website I now believe that the problem with the model of governance in Australia, and probably in many other ‘liberal’ countries, goes much deeper. In fact it appears that governance under the malign influence of neoliberalism has destroyed all possibility of planning and, with, it all possibility of democratic change by the normal means.

I am not advocating violent revolution. But unless the governance model changes, benign social change is out of reach. The governance model can still evolve. But first it must be recognised and fully understood.

In what follows I’m going to be ‘throwing the baby out with the bathwater’. Yes, in every ideology there are some worthwhile ideas along with the bad ones. But in a short address there is no room for babies. Someone will no doubt quite properly point them out. My concern here is the filthy poo-sodden bathwater. If you want a more nuanced critique please read my book

The governance model

The model is rooted in the ideology of utilitarianism, modified by neoliberalism and further transformed by the resilience of parliamentary democracy into what I call ‘crony capitalism’ – or to give it its more polite name ‘clientelism’.

Utilitarianism

This is the philosophy made famous by Jeremy Bentham who said that the idea of natural human rights was ‘nonsense on stilts’. All that counted was the existence of pain and pleasure (or happiness). Public policy should aim to produce the ‘greatest happiness of the greatest number’, the utilitarian principle. Law based on the utilitarian principle was the only rational basis of rights. Law was to enshrine the rational principle of market exchange.

How do you measure ‘pleasure’? Well, you don’t bother. You just assume that there is a simple linear relationship between the amount of pleasure a person has and the amount of goods and services that person consumes. So if there is still pain suffered by some in society, it is offset by the greater pleasure experienced by others. It doesn’t matter that the many suffer ‘pain’, because the few experience immense amounts of ‘pleasure’. Conversely if a few suffer death it is offset by the economic pleasure of the many. This pernicious idea is false. If utilitarianism assumptions were correct James Packer on his giga-yacht would be among the happiest people alive.

You may have noticed a philosophical debate going on in the opinion pages of The Age. This is between utilitarians like Peter Singer and Duncan Maskell and human rights supporters contributing to the letters page. The ostensible debate is about whether old people should be sacrificed for the greater good represented by young lives and ‘business’.

Neoliberalism

Neoliberalism, or economic rationalism as it is sometimes called (it is no more and no less rational than any other ideology) began with two aristocratic Austrian philosophers, Ludwig von Mises and Friedrich von Hayek. Hayek founded the Mont Pelerin Society to discuss and disseminate his gospel. Basically the gospel says that only free market exchange would deliver societies from the slavery of socialism. Free markets had to be protected by a regime of elite ‘elders’.

Law, Hayek said, should precede and override legislation. ‘Law’, governing the behaviour of the market economy, would be determined by a legislative assembly consisting of wise elders (over 45 years old) serving electoral terms of fifteen years. Their election would not be subject to universal suffrage, and anyone receiving any benefits from the state (pensions, unemployment benefits, government salaries) would be automatically excluded from voting. Hayek’s plan was to set up a governing authority beyond political control to prevent elected politicians interfering with the market. Hayek’s position was reinforced by other disciples such as Milton and Rose Friedman (‘the Chicago School’) and the ‘public choice theorists’[1].

Hayek, presciently, advocated a network of what he called ‘second-hand dealers in ideas’ to promote his gospel. We would call them neoliberal think tanks with a mission to return societies from post-war egalitarianism to the proper order of things, namely economic domination by the wealthy, or as they themselves call it, ‘meritocracy’. I prefer the term plutonomy[2]. Helped by corporate donations, these ‘second-hand dealers’ have been so overwhelmingly successful in transforming the governance model that few today really notice that governance has been transformed.

Occasionally, when governments look like asserting themselves, the libertarian think tanks finance campaigns to sow doubt in the public mind. Thus, we have seen international campaigns against government action on tobacco smoking, on climate change, and most recently on Covid19 (e.g. ‘The Great Barrington Declaration’). Because scientific knowledge is, and should always be, debatable, the campaigns enrol a few scientists who dispute the current consensus and add on a mass of libertarian supporters to forge a sceptical mass. Naomi Oreskes and Erik Conway described this process in their book, Merchants of Doubt.

Further readings providing empirical support for the above are the vast volumes by Thomas Piketty, Capital in the 21st Century and Capital and Ideology.

Crony capitalism

Also unnoticed, in the hands of the second hand dealers the pure neoliberalism of Hayek became transformed into something close to its opposite; crony capitalism. The problem for the neoliberals is that electoral politics refused to go away, for the simple reason that people value universal suffrage that holds governments to account.

The political class therefore continued to hold power even while they paid lip service to neoliberalism. So, the governance system we have today is a hybrid between corporate economic power supported by antidemocratic neoliberal ideology and political power supported by universal suffrage: that is crony capitalism. This result was what Hayek regarded as ‘the worst of both worlds’: deals between political leaders and private corporations. At its worst, as the philosopher John Rawlston Saul pointed out twenty years ago[3], crony capitalism leads to fascism (he cites Mussolini) – via populism (Trump and Johnson) as we see in the USA and Britain today.

The neoliberal ‘hollowing out of the state’ has been supported by a theoretical spawn of neoliberalism called ‘New Public Management’. The ideology of NPM can be interpreted in different ways. It provided a salutary critique of sclerotic bureaucracies that had become distanced from the publics they served, hence ‘customer service’ became a byword for NPM but that admirable goal covered something more sinister. The scope and ambition of NPM is breathtaking;

New Public Management (NPM) is part of the managerial revolution that has gone around the world, affecting all countries, though to considerably different degrees. … The theoretical background of NPM is to be found in the strong criticism of a large public sector, to be found in the public choice school as well as Chicago School Economics, both attacking since the mid-1960s prevailing notions about public sector governance (Lane, 2000: 3)[4].

The essentials of NPM are these: the use of quasi-market structures for delivery of services, contracting out of government functions to private firms, setting performance targets, continual monitoring of performance, and installing management experts in senior executive positions. Professionals relevant to the government function of departments (e.g. transport planning, public health, environmental conservation, city planning, building regulation) were replaced in senior positions by generalists trained in ‘management’. These managers were often recruited from private sector firms or consultancies. What this management training in fact amounts to is in-depth indoctrination in neoliberal ideology.

The unintended consequences

It is easy enough to overlook the structural failure which gives rise to events because we look for culprits in politics and business management.

The corruption of urban and regional planning in which deals are done between developers and governments to enrich the latter at the stroke of a pen.
The absence of a transport and land use plan forming a context for investment in hugely costly infrastructure projects.
Failures of building regulation, outsourced to private firms, resulting in hundreds of tower blocks being covered in flammable cladding.
The scarcely regulated private recycling industry resulting in flammable material stored in huge warehouses, catching fire and belching toxic smoke over residential areas.
The absence of a viable national plan to reduce carbon emissions to safe levels while ensuring affordable and reliable electricity supply. Climate change is always tomorrow, never today!
Today, in front of our mask-clad noses is Covid19. The Victorian second wave has claimed 800 lives, and counting. Aged care failure nationally has claimed more than 600 lives. As I write (October 2020) there is a manhunt underway led by the eminent jurist Jennifer Coate to determine who is to blame. Even before finalising its report, the manhunt has claimed two scalps: the Minister of Health, Jenny Mikakos, and the Secretary of the Department of Premier and Cabinet, Chris Eccles. But the most telling result of multiple interrogations has been that nobody knows who is to blame. That’s because no body is to blame.

Andrews is not to blame. Mikakos and Eccles are scapegoats. Brett Sutton may be next. The governance system is to blame, but you cannot punish a system. This is the real conclusion of many judicial inquiries into governance failures over recent years: e.g. into banks, the superannuation industry, aged care, disability.

The example of Victoria’s second wave

It has been established by genomic tracing that all of the Victorian second wave of infection originated from two quarantine hotels, spread by hotel security guards who were insufficiently protected from the virus.

There has been no lack of planning for pandemic infection. In recent years planning began with the report by Dr Rosemary Lester published in 2014[5]. Lester is a highly qualified public health and epidemiology expert. Her report was delivered to the emergency management authority (Emergency Management Victoria)[6]. The epidemiological expertise shines through the report. The report was shelved.

Under the name of the Minister for Health, a second planning report was published in March this year (2020) authored by managers of the Victorian Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS). The authors plainly did not have a public health or epidemiological background. It is a managerial document focusing mainly on the (then) three stages of governmental response. It draws heavily on the similarly managerial report from the federal Department of Health.

In June an ‘operation’ was devised by DHHS named ‘Soteria’ (after the Greek goddess of rescue) designed to manage quarantine of returned overseas travellers. This operation is quite mysterious[7]. The DHHS has nothing on its website about the operation, who devised it or what its aims were. At the public inquiry headed by Justice Coate a sheet of instructions to ‘hotel security staff’ emerged: ‘OPERATION SOTERIA, PPE Advice to Hotel Security Staff and AO’s (sic) in Contact with Quarantined Individuals’. It advised that personal protective equipment was not required to be worn by security staff at any point of contact. The latter include the hotel lobby, the quarantine floor, and at doorways to clients’ hotel rooms. Only hand hygiene and surgical masks were ‘recommended’. Hotel quarantine clients (guests) were recommended to wear surgical masks ‘if tolerated’.

It is obvious that this operation did not benefit from epidemiological advice. In evidence to the Coate Inquiry, Professor Lindsay Grayson (Director of the Austin Hospital’s infectious disease department) said that, as well as training on the proper use of masks, security guards at any point of contact with hotel guests should have been dressed in full personal protective equipment (PPE) to the same standard as health workers.[8] It is also common sense. Epidemiological advice should not even have been needed. Everyone who reads a daily newspaper or receives a digital news feed would already have known how infectious this disease was.

The report by Rosemary Lester states:

‘The use of appropriate PPE is recommended in all healthcare settings, including primary care and health services. … Where the use of appropriate PPE is recommended the equipment must be suitable and maintained. Appropriate training must be provided to the individual using PPE at a time prior to the pandemic to ensure they become competent and proficient in its use’ (p.48).

The planners of Operation Soteria did not see that the situation of hotel quarantine was[9] a ‘health care setting’. Instead they talked about ‘security’. They followed the normal, easy solution of contracting out peripheral health work to private companies, without first ensuring that the workers were properly trained in the use of protective equipment and suitably supplied. The Health Department leader of the Covid 19 response allegedly decided to spread responsibility for the operation among government bureaucrats including police and emergency services. None of them were health professionals.

Lester’s report states, ‘The Chief Health Officer or delegate would assume the role of State Controller and liaise closely with the Emergency Management Commission’. He did not assume that role. It is easy to see that the linguistic slippage from ‘health care’ to ‘security’ masked what was most necessary in the looking after the needs of those quarantined in hotels.

The private companies sub-contracted the work to labour supply companies employing casual workers. Many of these workers in the so-called ‘gig economy’ had several different jobs on the go. Unprotected from the virus, they contracted disease from returned travellers (or allegedly from a night manager of one of the hotels), and, before they began showing symptoms, spread the virus to their families and to colleagues in other work settings, who in turn became infected and spread the virus further through the community.

The hotel quarantine planning debacle has had ramifying effects. Failure of quarantine has meant that the federal and State governments have imposed draconian controls on people returning to Australia from overseas, in breach of their human rights. And because governments believe they are unable to operate effective quarantine control for returning travellers, Australians are now banned from leaving the country.

Yes, the particular features of the Sars Cov 2 infection are ‘unprecedented’ as everyone now says. But thinking outside the box, thinking with imagination, does not depend on precedent. That, as Saul states, is an elementary human skill which seems to have been turned off by managerial ideology.

Professor Jan Carter, former head of policy and research at the Brotherhood of St Lawrence, writes in The Age (07/10/2020, p. 21)[10]:

In subsequent years, the assumptions of NPM took hold, claiming content-free management in general (and MBA holders in particular) were superior heads of divisions. Now, DHHS seems to the outsider to be an inward-looking oligarchy, devoted to replacing its own with its own and keeping potential executive managers such as Sutton at bay and under control.

She continues, ‘It is too early to say whether the tide has turned again, but in the final deliberations of the Coate inquiry, the reasons for the banishment of specialist managers in the DHHS and the twin assumptions that contracting out and content-free management are always the best, need close examination’.

The question of governance goes far beyond the Coate Inquiry and Covid 19. To ‘turn the tide’ we need an inquiry into the management of, and within, the public service, an inquiry of the scope of the Royal Commission Government Administration conducted by Coombs for the Whitlam Government.

Tentative conclusions

Utilitarianism can be a useful and progressive philosophy, but it does not supplant human rights or correct social injustice. Some forms of neoliberalism have merit (for example the German variant). Public sector management is a field of study as profound and extensive as that of any other profession[11]. I do not believe that NPM is completely flawed.

But managerial concepts can be employed, and have been employed, for purposes ranging from the humane and compassionate to community suppression and genocide. In Australia NPM is being employed for the purpose of class struggle, for the strong and wealthy against the weak and poor. We have to get used to calling out class struggle where it occurs even though the classes in question are quite different from those of Marx’s day (I address the class issue in my book). In the process good governance suffers, across the social services: transport, public health, education, social welfare.

Having said that the problem we have is ‘structural’, it is also true that governance models or ‘structures’ are only ever powerful when they become embodied in the minds and activities of persons. Thus, in looking for the effects of NPM, we need to expose the ideology which shapes the advice to politicians. The aim is not to apportion individual blame but to seek out the structural assumptions that individuals embody.

We have to find a way of integrating a variety of professionals in public health, city planning, land use and transport planning, social welfare and housing into the most senior management positions in the public service. That should not mean doing away with sensible public sector management reforms which have been undertaken in the last twenty years. We need a broad review into public sector management to build on reforms that were explored in the 1970s and 1980s under the proposition that public services are not the same as ‘commercial enterprises’ as the CEO of Australia Post recently claimed. Unfortunately Christine Holgate is right when she says that Australia Post is a commercial enterprise. Under NPM, that is what it, and so many of our public services, have become.

My purpose in this paper is to shift the debate from the superficial to the underlying nature of governance today. Dispute how we will, but for God’s sake let’s have the debate.


 

[1] Though not by all the members of the Mont Pelerin Society as I point out in my book.

[2] Plutonomy is a system in which economic oligarchies have accumulated sufficient wealth to free themselves from national constraints, a global economic system, delinked from national economies, serving the very particular demands for goods and services of the ultra-rich.

[3] Saul, J. R. (2002) On Equilibrium, Penguin Books Australia, p. 36.

[4] Lane, J-E. (2000) New Public Management, London and New York: Routledge.

[5] file:///C:/Users/npl/Downloads/VHMPPI%20Final%20version%20-%20PDF.pdf (downloaded 20/08/2020)

[6] An organisation mostly designed for bushfire management.

[7] Transcript of proceedings of the Inquiry into the Covid-19 Hotel Quarantine Program, Day 3 p. 23 (17/08/2020). ‘Various iterations of Operation Soteria had many different moving parts involving different agencies with separate roles. An issue will be whether it was too fragmented to work efficiently, especially given the need for quick coordinated action that is proposed in the emergency environment.’ https://www.quarantineinquiry.vic.gov.au/sites/default/files/2020-08/Transcript%20of%2017%20August%202020_0.pdf (accessed 21/08/2020)

[8] Transcript of proceedings of the Inquiry into the Covid-19 Hotel Quarantine Program (17/08/2020) pages 48 and 51.

[9] Cunnigham, C., Mills, T. and Dow, A. (2020) ‘Bureaucrats blocked plan for Sutton to lead crisis’, The Age, Melbourne, 11/09/2020, p. 1.

[10] Professor Carter has undertaken a number of reviews and projects for the DHSS, including for the Cain, Kennett and Bracks governments. She is a professor at Melbourne and Deakin Universities.

[11] As is evident from the scholarly survey of the field by Shafritz et al. (2017), now in its ninth edition. Shafritz, J.M., Russell, E.W., Borick, C.P. and Hyde, A.C. (2017 Introducing Public Administration, Routledge: London and New York.